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Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (17 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 35.3% trails market-implied 39.9% by -4.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +5.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-72.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -17.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -31.3%.
Since last weekly snapshot: +9 new bets · ROI: +41.2% (-72.5% → -31.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.6% (-21.2% → -17.6%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-5.32
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-17.6%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
39.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 17 | $-5.32 | -31.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 16 | $-7.06 | -44.1% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 15 | $-8.26 | -55.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 12 | $-10.75 | -89.6% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-05 | 8 | 12.5% | 2.94 | $-5.80 | -72.5% |
| 2026-06 | 9 | 55.6% | 3.48 | +$0.48 | +5.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 6 | 50.0% | $-1.46 | -24.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 4 | 75.0% | +$3.14 | +78.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 4 | 100.0% | +$3.71 | +92.8% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.23 | -11.5% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 9 of 17 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 9 | 55.6% | +$0.48 | +5.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 17 | 35.3% | $-5.32 | -31.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| geelong | 9 | 55.6% | +$0.48 | +5.3% |
| melton | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.80 | -72.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 17 | 35.3% | $-5.32 | -31.3% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.64 (+164.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-05 | geelong | Ifyoulovemeletmego | 2.74 | +$1.74 |
| 2026-06-05 | geelong | Shezalover | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-05-01 | melton | Our Bella Lucia | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-06-05 | geelong | Remembrance Time | 1.77 | +$0.77 |
| 2026-06-05 | geelong | Bond Girl | 1.52 | +$0.52 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-05 | geelong | Sweetheart Dior | 3.95 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-05 | geelong | Woodlea Diego | 6.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | melton | Hurrikane Dusty | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-05 | geelong | Swaywithsierra | 5.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | melton | Captains Rush | 4.10 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.