Sky Racing - Dan Missen

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 31.6% trails market-implied 41.9% by -10.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -21.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -24.4%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -2.7% (-21.6% → -24.4%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.5% (-19.8% → -21.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

136

Wins

Win Rate

31.6%

Avg Odds

3.21

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-33.13

ROI

-24.4%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-21.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

41.9%

Calibration Gap

-10.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	136	$-33.13	-24.4%
Minus best 1 bet	135	$-36.83	-27.3%
Minus best 2 bets	134	$-40.23	-30.0%
Minus best 5 bets	131	$-48.28	-36.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-34.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-20.3%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	30	36.7%	3.35	$-0.42	-1.4%
2026-04	68	32.4%	2.90	$-19.48	-28.6%
2026-05	31	22.6%	3.75	$-13.47	-43.5%
2026-06	7	42.9%	3.20	+$0.24	+3.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	34	47.1%	$-8.30	-24.4%
2.0-3.0	48	37.5%	$-3.98	-8.3%
3.0-5.0	33	27.3%	+$0.15	+0.5%
5.0-8.0	16	0.0%	$-16.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	8	37.5%	$-2.39	-29.9%
Rank 2	6	50.0%	$-0.16	-2.7%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	5	40.0%	+$3.40	+68.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 22 of 136 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	22	36.4%	$-2.15	-9.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	136	31.6%	$-33.13	-24.4%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
moree	13	61.5%	+$5.99	+46.1%
narromine	7	57.1%	+$1.43	+20.4%
dubbo	9	22.2%	$-2.87	-31.9%
wyong	7	28.6%	$-3.14	-44.9%
gunnedah	9	33.3%	$-3.39	-37.7%
wellington	14	28.6%	$-4.41	-31.5%
muswellbrook	7	14.3%	$-5.04	-72.0%
quirindi	14	21.4%	$-6.12	-43.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	7	14.3%	$-4.28	-61.1%
Tue	20	50.0%	+$4.15	+20.8%
Thu	42	33.3%	$-4.80	-11.4%
Fri	22	27.3%	$-9.65	-43.9%
Sat	7	28.6%	$-3.14	-44.9%
Sun	38	26.3%	$-15.41	-40.6%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.12 (+4.0% ROI) on 3 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-21	tamworth	Grosso Naso	4.70	+$3.70
2026-03-14	dubbo	Narmer	4.40	+$3.40
2026-03-25	tamworth	Lachies Ideal	3.85	+$2.85
2026-06-01	moree	Off The Scale	3.70	+$2.70
2026-04-25	narromine	Strassman	3.50	+$2.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-28	quirindi	Lord Of The Sun	6.40	$-1.00
2026-04-25	narromine	Chappolicious	2.28	$-1.00
2026-06-01	moree	Zamalek	1.96	$-1.00
2026-04-09	wellington	Territory Style	1.12	$-1.00
2026-04-30	muswellbrook	Dr Hook	1.99	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.