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Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 30.2% trails market-implied 33.7% by -3.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -19.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+2.5%) — trend is declining.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +0.5% (-8.9% → -8.5%) · Shrunk ROI: -0.2% (-9.9% → -10.1%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-7.30
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-10.1%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
33.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 86 | $-7.30 | -8.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 85 | $-12.20 | -14.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 84 | $-17.10 | -20.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 81 | $-27.60 | -34.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 16 | 37.5% | 4.25 | +$2.39 | +14.9% |
| 2026-04 | 27 | 33.3% | 3.62 | $-1.33 | -4.9% |
| 2026-05 | 43 | 25.6% | 3.98 | $-8.36 | -19.4% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 12 | 50.0% | $-2.39 | -19.9% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 25 | 32.0% | $-6.06 | -24.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 27 | 33.3% | +$6.35 | +23.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 17 | 17.6% | $-0.20 | -1.2% |
| 8.0-15 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 7 | 42.9% | +$0.30 | +4.3% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 50.0% | +$2.10 | +105.0% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 25.0% | +$1.90 | +47.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 16 of 86 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 14 | 35.7% | +$3.30 | +23.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 86 | 30.2% | $-7.30 | -8.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| launceston | 31 | 35.5% | +$2.18 | +7.0% |
| hobart | 26 | 30.8% | +$0.71 | +2.7% |
| devonport | 29 | 24.1% | $-10.19 | -35.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.95 | -56.4% |
| Fri | 31 | 35.5% | +$2.18 | +7.0% |
| Sun | 48 | 29.2% | $-5.53 | -11.5% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.21 (-10.3% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-12 | launceston | Sevillana | 5.90 | +$4.90 |
| 2026-05-23 | hobart | Billie The Great | 5.90 | +$4.90 |
| 2026-05-01 | launceston | Just Lika Dream | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | hobart | Light Force | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
| 2026-05-30 | devonport | Houlihan | 4.10 | +$3.10 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-17 | launceston | In The Ocean | 2.44 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | devonport | Merlin Beach | 2.64 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | launceston | Lawrenny Boys | 2.18 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | launceston | Keayang Lexi | 3.65 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | devonport | Roundle Park | 2.44 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.