Sky Racing - Fred Hastings

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 33.0% trails market-implied 51.1% by -18.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -45.1%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-29.8%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -30.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -35.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -3.7% (-31.4% → -35.1%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.3% (-28.0% → -30.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

179

Wins

Win Rate

33.0%

Avg Odds

2.46

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-62.82

ROI

-35.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-30.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

51.1%

Calibration Gap

-18.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	179	$-62.82	-35.1%
Minus best 1 bet	178	$-66.82	-37.5%
Minus best 2 bets	177	$-70.12	-39.6%
Minus best 5 bets	174	$-78.37	-45.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-45.1%

Prior 60d ROI

-29.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	59	32.2%	2.38	$-24.91	-42.2%
2026-04	49	38.8%	2.86	$-7.23	-14.8%
2026-05	63	31.7%	2.20	$-24.92	-39.6%
2026-06	8	12.5%	2.73	$-5.76	-72.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	79	49.4%	$-23.22	-29.4%
2.0-3.0	53	22.6%	$-23.10	-43.6%
3.0-5.0	39	17.9%	$-13.50	-34.6%
5.0-8.0	6	16.7%	$-1.00	-16.7%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	15	33.3%	$-5.95	-39.7%
Rank 2	9	11.1%	$-7.95	-88.3%
Rank 3	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	50.0%	$-0.03	-1.5%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 30 of 179 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	30	23.3%	$-17.93	-59.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	179	33.0%	$-62.82	-35.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bathurst	18	22.2%	$-12.94	-71.9%
penrith	85	41.2%	$-14.61	-17.2%
menangle	76	26.3%	$-35.27	-46.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	8	25.0%	$-4.75	-59.4%
Wed	8	12.5%	$-6.77	-84.6%
Thu	85	40.0%	$-10.84	-12.8%
Fri	16	25.0%	$-10.65	-66.6%
Sat	62	29.0%	$-29.81	-48.1%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 75.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.87 (+21.7% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-16	penrith	Blackjack Bart	5.00	+$4.00
2026-05-14	menangle	Startin To Gogh	4.30	+$3.30
2026-03-25	penrith	Lookin Good Margie	3.95	+$2.95
2026-05-02	menangle	Betterthancash	3.75	+$2.75
2026-04-16	penrith	Nicely Spoken	3.55	+$2.55

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-08	bathurst	Absolute Weapon	8.20	$-1.00
2026-05-21	penrith	Onedins Crusade	4.30	$-1.00
2026-04-23	penrith	Hesaa Lister	1.85	$-1.00
2026-05-14	menangle	Rocket Ralph	2.34	$-1.00
2026-04-08	bathurst	Guarded Prognosis	1.21	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.