Sky Racing - Gary Kliese

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 29.6% trails market-implied 38.6% by -8.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +4.6% (-15.9% → -11.2%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.1% (-15.0% → -11.9%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

29.6%

Avg Odds

3.50

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-9.11

ROI

-11.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-11.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

38.6%

Calibration Gap

-8.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	81	$-9.11	-11.2%
Minus best 1 bet	80	$-17.51	-21.9%
Minus best 2 bets	79	$-23.11	-29.3%
Minus best 5 bets	76	$-32.71	-43.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-18.2%

Prior 60d ROI

-4.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	40	37.5%	3.01	$-1.63	-4.1%
2026-05	27	22.2%	4.11	$-5.46	-20.2%
2026-06	14	21.4%	3.74	$-2.02	-14.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	17	41.2%	$-5.30	-31.2%
2.0-3.0	26	38.5%	$-1.36	-5.2%
3.0-5.0	21	19.0%	$-6.65	-31.7%
5.0-8.0	14	14.3%	$-2.20	-15.7%
8.0-15	3	33.3%	+$6.40	+213.3%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	16	31.2%	$-3.68	-23.0%
Rank 2	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	33.3%	+$3.60	+120.0%
Rank 6+	2	50.0%	+$7.40	+370.0%

Based on 31 of 81 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	29	24.1%	$-0.68	-2.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	81	29.6%	$-9.11	-11.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
port macquarie	16	37.5%	+$6.00	+37.5%
ballina	6	50.0%	+$1.53	+25.5%
taree	15	33.3%	+$0.23	+1.5%
grafton	14	28.6%	$-3.67	-26.2%
inverell	8	12.5%	$-5.22	-65.2%
coffs harbour	22	22.7%	$-7.98	-36.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	9	33.3%	+$4.56	+50.7%
Tue	14	35.7%	$-2.56	-18.3%
Wed	7	14.3%	$-3.45	-49.3%
Thu	8	37.5%	$-1.20	-15.0%
Fri	30	23.3%	$-8.32	-27.7%
Sun	13	38.5%	+$1.86	+14.3%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.61 (-40.2% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-18	port macquarie	Yorikiri	9.40	+$8.40
2026-06-05	taree	Mosgiel Daisy	6.60	+$5.60
2026-04-18	grafton	Yukanuma	5.20	+$4.20
2026-04-14	ballina	Geegee Jet By	3.80	+$2.80
2026-04-24	coffs harbour	Whatsthetimemrwolf	3.60	+$2.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-07	coffs harbour	Redadel	4.70	$-1.00
2026-05-18	port macquarie	Diva Rouge	3.00	$-1.00
2026-05-22	inverell	Pride To Follow	1.65	$-1.00
2026-06-05	taree	Fashion Spree	2.96	$-1.00
2026-04-09	taree	Savvyrocker	4.20	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.