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Sky Racing - Matt Robertson
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 41.4% trails market-implied 55.6% by -14.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +5.6% (-24.1% → -18.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.7% (-21.5% → -16.8%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-20.59
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
55.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 111 | $-20.59 | -18.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 110 | $-25.09 | -22.8% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 109 | $-27.74 | -25.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 106 | $-35.49 | -33.5% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 43 | 41.9% | 1.86 | $-14.87 | -34.6% |
| 2026-04 | 30 | 40.0% | 2.83 | $-0.73 | -2.4% |
| 2026-05 | 38 | 42.1% | 2.55 | $-4.99 | -13.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 53 | 54.7% | $-13.88 | -26.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 25 | 36.0% | $-3.56 | -14.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 27 | 25.9% | $-2.65 | -9.8% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 6 | 16.7% | $-0.50 | -8.3% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 10 | 50.0% | $-1.98 | -19.8% |
| Rank 2 | 4 | 50.0% | +$3.30 | +82.5% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 17 of 111 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 17 | 41.2% | $-1.68 | -9.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 111 | 41.4% | $-20.59 | -18.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| launceston | 47 | 44.7% | $-0.69 | -1.5% |
| burnie | 7 | 42.9% | $-3.94 | -56.3% |
| hobart | 57 | 38.6% | $-15.96 | -28.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 14 | 42.9% | $-3.26 | -23.3% |
| Fri | 38 | 36.8% | $-12.28 | -32.3% |
| Sun | 59 | 44.1% | $-5.05 | -8.6% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.43 (+21.5% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-25 | launceston | Miki Sanz | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-05-30 | hobart | We Salute You | 3.65 | +$2.65 |
| 2026-03-24 | hobart | Zoe Ella | 3.65 | +$2.65 |
| 2026-05-24 | launceston | Bettablack Tiger | 3.65 | +$2.65 |
| 2026-05-15 | launceston | Alby Priddy | 3.45 | +$2.45 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-14 | hobart | Mr Bondi | 1.03 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | burnie | The Chancer | 1.01 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | launceston | Calzo Sniper | 1.22 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | hobart | Sue Nien | 1.02 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-24 | hobart | Captain Cheddar | 4.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.