Sky Racing - Rod Fuller

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 32.9% trails market-implied 47.8% by -14.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -32.6%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-4.3%) — trend is declining.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +2.1% (-15.2% → -13.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.8% (-14.8% → -13.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

155

Wins

Win Rate

32.9%

Avg Odds

2.85

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-20.27

ROI

-13.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-13.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

47.8%

Calibration Gap

-14.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	155	$-20.27	-13.1%
Minus best 1 bet	154	$-28.27	-18.4%
Minus best 2 bets	153	$-32.87	-21.5%
Minus best 5 bets	150	$-44.17	-29.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-32.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-4.3%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	46	34.8%	2.87	$-0.88	-1.9%
2026-04	55	36.4%	2.67	$-8.67	-15.8%
2026-05	42	28.6%	3.05	$-7.23	-17.2%
2026-06	12	25.0%	2.83	$-3.49	-29.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	50	38.0%	$-24.41	-48.8%
2.0-3.0	41	31.7%	$-9.36	-22.8%
3.0-5.0	49	32.7%	+$8.70	+17.8%
5.0-8.0	11	18.2%	$-0.20	-1.8%
8.0-15	4	25.0%	+$5.00	+125.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	17	35.3%	+$0.87	+5.1%
Rank 2	7	14.3%	$-3.70	-52.9%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	100.0%	+$0.12	+12.0%

Based on 28 of 155 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	27	29.6%	$-4.71	-17.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	155	32.9%	$-20.27	-13.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
port macquarie	33	36.4%	+$2.57	+7.8%
tuncurry	12	41.7%	+$1.60	+13.3%
grafton	5	60.0%	+$1.28	+25.6%
inverell	8	37.5%	+$1.12	+14.0%
coffs harbour	27	33.3%	$-0.36	-1.3%
armidale	21	28.6%	$-5.29	-25.2%
tamworth	8	12.5%	$-5.56	-69.5%
taree	41	29.3%	$-15.63	-38.1%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	20	30.0%	$-7.41	-37.0%
Tue	33	33.3%	$-8.28	-25.1%
Wed	6	33.3%	+$0.70	+11.7%
Thu	15	26.7%	$-7.51	-50.1%
Fri	45	20.0%	$-18.61	-41.4%
Sat	17	47.1%	+$10.32	+60.7%
Sun	19	57.9%	+$10.52	+55.4%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 75.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.36 (+9.0% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-27	port macquarie	Blue Dane	9.00	+$8.00
2026-05-04	taree	Silver Tempest	5.60	+$4.60
2026-04-17	tuncurry	Bondi Prophet	5.20	+$4.20
2026-05-21	inverell	Meddlesome	4.70	+$3.70
2026-05-07	coffs harbour	Tribbiani	4.40	+$3.40

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-20	taree	Villa Castina	1.02	$-1.00
2026-05-07	coffs harbour	Baby Ryan	2.12	$-1.00
2026-04-09	tamworth	Dub	3.80	$-1.00
2026-06-02	coffs harbour	Master Artist	2.92	$-1.00
2026-04-08	taree	Rockbarton Angel	1.02	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.