Sky Racing - Russell Leonard

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (54 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.1% trails market-implied 40.1% by -16.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -65.3%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-17.9%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -26.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -39.9%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -12.9% (-27.0% → -39.9%) · Shrunk ROI: -5.1% (-21.8% → -26.9%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

24.1%

Avg Odds

3.27

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-21.52

ROI

-39.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-26.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

40.1%

Calibration Gap

-16.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	54	$-21.52	-39.9%
Minus best 1 bet	53	$-25.92	-48.9%
Minus best 2 bets	52	$-29.52	-56.8%
Minus best 5 bets	49	$-35.46	-72.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-65.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-17.9%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	15	26.7%	3.27	$-0.52	-3.5%
2026-04	13	23.1%	3.50	$-6.19	-47.6%
2026-05	20	25.0%	2.98	$-10.27	-51.3%
2026-06	6	16.7%	3.73	$-4.54	-75.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	14	35.7%	$-6.98	-49.9%
2.0-3.0	19	26.3%	$-7.34	-38.6%
3.0-5.0	14	21.4%	$-0.20	-1.4%
5.0-8.0	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	10	40.0%	$-2.56	-25.6%
Rank 2	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 17 of 54 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	14	28.6%	$-6.56	-46.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	54	24.1%	$-21.52	-39.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
rockhampton	26	26.9%	$-9.17	-35.3%
mackay	28	21.4%	$-12.35	-44.1%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	7	14.3%	$-4.48	-64.0%
Thu	19	26.3%	$-6.37	-33.5%
Fri	18	22.2%	$-9.73	-54.1%
Sat	10	30.0%	$-0.94	-9.4%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.71 (+90.3% ROI) on 3 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-19	mackay	Scrub Chain	4.90	+$4.40
2026-03-13	rockhampton	Krackacan	4.60	+$3.60
2026-04-16	mackay	Obligated	3.80	+$2.80
2026-05-20	rockhampton	Thebarberofseville	2.62	+$1.62
2026-05-04	rockhampton	Sport	2.52	+$1.52

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-16	mackay	Four Leaf Wonder	4.80	$-1.00
2026-04-02	mackay	Rum Rumble	3.75	$-1.00
2026-06-04	rockhampton	Pipistrelle	2.82	$-1.00
2026-05-23	mackay	Pride Of Venus	2.50	$-1.00
2026-03-13	rockhampton	Miss Mercy	2.24	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.