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Stats Insider

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-03 03:51 UTC

Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (2 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 0.0% trails market-implied 58.3% by -58.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -16.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -100.0%.
Bio & context
Commercial sports-analytics service producing model-driven racing tips. Subscription product — tips publicly distributed via Betfair Hub partnership. Australian-based.
AustraliaSports-analytics service / commercial tipping product
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
  • Tips are publicly distributed — signal is widely consumed, expect heavy market absorption before posting
  • Commercial incentive: needs visible volume to justify subscription, not the same incentive as a private punter
Methodology: Quantitative models scoring runners. Output is algorithmic — same methodology applied across all races, no per-race human override. High-volume by design.
Specialty: Australian thoroughbred racing — broad national coverage
Public footprint
  • statsinsider.com.au — subscription product
  • Betfair Hub — distribution partner
  • Social media presence across racing channels
Public track-record claims
  • Marketed as model-driven 'value' picks; public ROI claims not verified independently
Source: manual · last researched 2026-05-30

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets
2
Wins
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Avg Odds
3.35
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-2.00
ROI
-100.0%
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
58.3%
Calibration Gap
-58.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

MonthNWin %Avg OddsP/LROI
2026-0320.0%3.35$-2.00-100.0%

By odds bracket

OddsNWin %P/LROI
<2.010.0%$-1.00-100.0%
5.0-8.010.0%$-1.00-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

(no source data)

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

DateVenueSelectionOddsP/L
No wins

Biggest losses

DateVenueSelectionOddsP/L
2026-03-05Indiana Pacers1.01$-1.00
2026-03-05Indiana Pacers5.70$-1.00
Generated 2026-06-03 03:51 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.