← Back to dashboard
statsinsider
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (19 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 52.6% beats market-implied 44.4% by +8.2pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 170% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -14.4% on 17 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -4.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw +18.3%.
Since last weekly snapshot: +13 new bets · ROI: +2.9% (+15.3% → +18.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.6% (-10.0% → -4.4%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$3.47
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-4.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
44.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 19 | +$3.47 | +18.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 18 | +$0.07 | +0.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 17 | $-2.44 | -14.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 14 | $-5.75 | -41.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 6 | 50.0% | 2.45 | +$0.92 | +15.3% |
| 2026-09 | 13 | 53.8% | 2.62 | +$2.55 | +19.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 9 | 77.8% | +$2.86 | +31.8% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 4 | 25.0% | $-1.30 | -32.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 6 | 33.3% | +$1.91 | +31.8% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 7 | 71.4% | +$1.25 | +17.9% |
| Rank 2 | 10 | 40.0% | +$2.40 | +24.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 19 of 19 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 19 | 52.6% | +$3.47 | +18.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| payload | 19 | 52.6% | +$3.47 | +18.3% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Thu | 2 | 100.0% | +$1.44 | +72.0% |
| Fri | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.70 | +170.0% |
| Sat | 3 | 33.3% | +$0.51 | +17.0% |
| Sun | 13 | 46.2% | $-0.18 | -1.4% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-13 | | Arizona Cardinals | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
| 2026-07-17 | | England | 3.51 | +$2.51 |
| 2026-09-09 | | San Francisco 49ers | 2.70 | +$1.70 |
| 2026-09-09 | | Seattle Seahawks | 1.82 | +$0.82 |
| 2026-07-17 | | Both Teams to Score - No | 1.79 | +$0.79 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-17 | | Both Teams to Score - No | 2.58 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | | Carolina Panthers | 2.51 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | | Tennessee Titans | 1.85 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | | Indianapolis Colts | 2.58 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | | Cleveland Browns | 4.71 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.