Tom Haylock

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (11 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 45.5% beats market-implied 23.1% by +22.4pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 108% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -16.8% on 9 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +18.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +163.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +6 new bets · ROI: +99.1% (+64.4% → +163.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +24.8% (-6.0% → +18.8%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

45.5%

Avg Odds

12.80

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$17.99

ROI

+163.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+18.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

23.1%

Calibration Gap

+22.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	11	+$17.99	+163.5%
Minus best 1 bet	10	+$3.49	+34.9%
Minus best 2 bets	9	$-1.51	-16.8%
Minus best 5 bets	6	$-6.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	1	100.0%	2.22	+$1.22	+122.0%
2026-07	1	100.0%	6.00	+$5.00	+500.0%
2026-08	3	0.0%	7.93	$-3.00	-100.0%
2026-09	6	50.0%	18.13	+$14.77	+246.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.57	+57.0%
2.0-3.0	2	50.0%	+$0.22	+11.0%
3.0-5.0	2	50.0%	+$1.70	+85.0%
5.0-8.0	1	100.0%	+$5.00	+500.0%
15+	5	20.0%	+$10.50	+210.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	33.3%	$-1.43	-47.7%
Rank 3	2	50.0%	+$4.00	+200.0%
Rank 6+	5	40.0%	+$14.20	+284.0%

Based on 10 of 11 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	50.0%	+$4.00	+200.0%
Outside Zone	8	37.5%	+$12.77	+159.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	11	45.5%	+$17.99	+163.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
flemington	6	50.0%	+$14.77	+246.2%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 33.3%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.20 (+40.0% ROI) on 3 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-12	flemington	11. Welcometotheshow	15.50	+$14.50
2026-07-25	randwick	6. Hawker Hall	6.00	+$5.00
2026-09-12	flemington	11. Welcometotheshow	3.70	+$2.70
2026-06-27		2. Sun God	2.22	+$1.22
2026-09-12	flemington	12. Sheza Alibi	1.57	+$0.57

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-12	flemington	7. Disneck	40.00	$-1.00
2026-09-12	flemington	9. Recon	19.00	$-1.00
2026-08-28	caulfield	6. Shadhavar	3.10	$-1.00
2026-09-12	flemington	8. Enriched	29.00	$-1.00
2026-08-28	caulfield	5. Proved	18.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.