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Travis Noonan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 19.6% vs implied 22.4% (-2.8pp). Picks track market expectations. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -24.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -30.5%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +5.4% (-36.0% → -30.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.0% (-29.6% → -24.6%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-29.60
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-24.6%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
22.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 97 | $-29.60 | -30.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 96 | $-35.10 | -36.6% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 95 | $-40.10 | -42.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 92 | $-51.30 | -55.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 25 | 24.0% | 6.41 | $-2.80 | -11.2% |
| 2026-04 | 39 | 15.4% | 6.69 | $-16.10 | -41.3% |
| 2026-05 | 33 | 21.2% | 8.48 | $-10.70 | -32.4% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.30 | -43.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 18 | 33.3% | $-4.80 | -26.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 24 | 37.5% | +$11.00 | +45.8% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 22 | 13.6% | $-4.50 | -20.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 22 | 0.0% | $-22.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 33.3% | $-0.90 | -30.0% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 13 of 97 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 11 | 9.1% | $-8.90 | -80.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 97 | 19.6% | $-29.60 | -30.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| flemington | 9 | 22.2% | +$0.60 | +6.7% |
| caulfield | 14 | 28.6% | +$0.30 | +2.1% |
| rosehill | 6 | 16.7% | $-1.80 | -30.0% |
| eagle farm | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| randwick | 12 | 8.3% | $-9.40 | -78.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 16 | 25.0% | $-5.00 | -31.2% |
| Sat | 57 | 17.5% | $-17.70 | -31.1% |
| Sun | 24 | 20.8% | $-6.90 | -28.8% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-10 | werribee | Catch A Break | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-04-10 | caulfield | Soft Love | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | flemington | Brave Danza | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-03-27 | flemington | Al Duca | 4.60 | +$3.60 |
| 2026-04-03 | launceston | Material Madam | 4.60 | +$3.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-03 | ascot | Bonjoy | 2.20 | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-31 | sandown | Keane Enuff | 11.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | tamworth | Echelon | 2.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | mornington | Acheter | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | bendigo | Zain Blue | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.