Trent Crebbin

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (37 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 24.3% beats market-implied 20.1% by +4.2pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 124% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -19.9% on 35 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +114.4%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-82.6%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +25.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +77.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +9 new bets · ROI: +84.7% (-7.6% → +77.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +36.4% (-11.1% → +25.3%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

24.3%

Avg Odds

10.10

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$28.53

ROI

+77.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+25.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

20.1%

Calibration Gap

+4.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	37	+$28.53	+77.1%
Minus best 1 bet	36	+$2.53	+7.0%
Minus best 2 bets	35	$-6.97	-19.9%
Minus best 5 bets	32	$-22.37	-69.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+114.4%

Prior 60d ROI

-82.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	1	0.0%	11.00	$-1.00	-100.0%
2026-07	5	20.0%	6.95	$-3.78	-75.6%
2026-08	16	12.5%	14.20	$-1.60	-10.0%
2026-09	15	40.0%	6.71	+$34.91	+232.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	4	50.0%	+$0.96	+24.0%
3.0-5.0	9	22.2%	$-1.65	-18.3%
5.0-8.0	8	25.0%	$-1.48	-18.5%
8.0-15	9	22.2%	+$10.70	+118.9%
15+	6	16.7%	+$21.00	+350.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	9	33.3%	$-0.59	-6.6%
Rank 2	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	6	16.7%	+$3.20	+53.3%
Rank 6+	9	22.2%	+$2.72	+30.2%

Based on 32 of 37 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	27	22.2%	+$2.33	+8.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	37	24.3%	+$28.53	+77.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
flemington	7	14.3%	$-3.55	-50.7%
caulfield	16	12.5%	$-4.28	-26.7%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 12 settled, place rate 58.3%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.61 (+5.1% ROI) on 12 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-12		4. Savvy Hallie	27.00	+$26.00
2026-08-14	caulfield	10. Fundamental Nature	10.50	+$9.50
2026-09-12	rosehill	5. Warwoven	9.20	+$8.20
2026-09-05		4. Pretty Baby	5.30	+$4.30
2026-08-22		12. Buggsy	3.90	+$2.90

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-28	caulfield	10. Darkbonee	3.05	$-1.00
2026-08-08	caulfield	4. Magnaspin	12.00	$-1.00
2026-08-29	caulfield	9. Bridal Waltz	3.95	$-1.00
2026-07-10	caulfield	13. Beechworth	1.03	$-1.00
2026-09-12	rosehill	5. Tenenbaum	6.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.